18.04-25.04 price analysis and forecast for the new week BTC / USD

(Picture 1. 4h graph)

Last week, bitcoin began trading at $ 59,950. Right at the beginning of the new week, the price fell through the emerging support area and through the 250MA moving average, which was a strong indication of a potential trend change. Only time will tell whether the trend change will be short-term and a healthy correction or whether it will be a change in the longer-term trend.

Moving Averages

250MA (green); 50MA (sine); 21MA (orange). When using the Moving Averages strategy, all the lines must be in correlation with one another. Moving Averages crossovers are a great way to detect changing trends and understanding which way the price might change.

Example: A strong bull market (bullish) trend is when the price trades above 250MA. Also, 50MA and 21MA lines are above 250MA. Also, 21MA must be higher than 50MA.

  • At the beginning of last week, bitcoin started to fall sharply. First, the 21MA broke below the 50MA, which was the first indication for the cooling bull market.
  • In the middle of last week, 21MA broke below 250MA, which was another strong indication/confirmation of the new downtrend.
  • In the second half of the week, 50MA broke below 250MA, which confirms that the trend has changed according to moving averages.
  • The price also traded below 50MA and 21MA below, which confirms that bears are currently leading the market, at least in the short and medium-term.

RSI or Relativity Strength Index

(Picture 2. 4h graph - RSI.)
  • There is a significant discrepancy between the Strength of Relativity Index and the price chart. In previous analyses, we have been in an uptrend and have been looking for divergence in oversold territories. In the case of a downtrend, we have to look for divergences in overbought regions or emerging price peaks.
  • Divergence was confirmed in the oversold area, which resulted in a short-term price increase.
  • As we are on a downtrend, we are looking for divergences that would speak in favor of the current trend. The price peaks of the RSI chart are up, and on the price chart, it´s vice-versa. According to the RSI indicator, we can expect a continued decline in bitcoin prices.

Areas of support, areas of resistance, and trends

(Figure 3. 4h graph - support / resistance / trend.)
  • At the beginning of last week, the price of bitcoin broke the substantial support range of 57,500 - 59,800 USD, which then became a strong resistance. Bitcoin also broke through the 250MA moving average, which provided explicit confirmation of further decline.
  • At the end of last week, another support area, 50,350 - 51,250 USD, was broken. The price kept trading just under the previous support area.

For this week

This week, it will be exciting to see whether the market bulls regain their power and the longer-term trend continues upwards, or the short-term trend continues downwards (correction). Until the bulls in the market have failed to break the declining short-term trend lines, we continue the short-term downward trend. If the bulls in the market can break short-term downtrend lines, we can see the price move back to around $ 60,000, near which the price needs to be re-analyzed.

However, if the market bears break through the long-term uptrend line, we can expect the price to fall to the strong support zone, which is in the range of 40,900 - 43,900 USD.

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This article is for informational purposes only and is not construed as an investment analyst or as a recommendation to sell or buy the assets mentioned herein. Change is not responsible for decisions made based on what is published in this article. Investing is associated with opportunities and risks; the market value of assets may increase or decrease. The value of assets denominated in foreign currencies is also affected by exchange rate fluctuations. Past or future performance in this article does not constitute a promise or an indication of future performance.


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